Two numbers determine whether a strategy makes money: win rate (how often you win) and average R (how big your winners are relative to your losers). They're locked in a tradeoff, and understanding it frees you from the beginner obsession with win rate — which, alone, tells you nothing (as the expectancy math shows).
The tradeoff
Generally, you can have a high win rate with small average R (take profits quickly, win often, but winners barely exceed losers) or a low win rate with high average R (let winners run, lose more often, but winners dwarf losers). Trend-following lives at the low-win-rate/high-R end; mean-reversion scalping often lives at the high-win-rate/low-R end. Neither is “better” — they're different points on the same curve, and both can be very profitable.
Why chasing win rate backfires
Beginners chase a high win rate for the emotional comfort of being “right” a lot — and pay for it by cutting winners early (breakeven-itis) and holding losers, wrecking their average R. A 90% win rate with tiny winners and a few huge losers is a negative-expectancy disaster. The number that matters is the combination: win rate × avg win vs. loss rate × avg loss. Optimize expectancy, not either number alone.
A high win rate feels like skill and can hide a losing system. A low win rate feels like failure and can hide a great one. Expectancy is the only judge; win rate is just one witness.
Finding your point on the curve
Your journal reveals where your edge actually lives — maybe your setups are high-win-rate/low-R, maybe the reverse. Trade to your point rather than forcing someone else's style, and know that a low win rate can be highly profitable. NoVo's exits (partials plus a runner) are designed to protect average R — banking wins without capping the occasional big one that carries the whole curve.