A market cycle is the repeating four-phase rhythm markets move through, formalized by Wyckoff and echoed in Dow Theory: accumulation → markup → distribution → markdown, then repeat. Each phase rewards a different approach (the Wyckoff Method, Dow Theory).

Accumulation and markup

Accumulation is the quiet basing phase after a decline — sideways, low excitement, smart money building positions while the crowd is uninterested or fearful (smart money). Markup is the uptrend that follows: higher highs and higher lows, the phase where trend-following pays and pullbacks get bought (trend following).

Distribution and markdown

Distribution is the topping phase — choppy, volatile, smart money selling into strength while the crowd is euphoric (the fear and greed cycle). Markdown is the downtrend that follows, where rallies get sold. The cycle then bottoms into a new accumulation.

Every phase has a strategy that works and three that don't. The costly mistake is trend-following a range or fading a markup — right tactic, wrong phase.

Trading the phase, not fighting it

You can't time the exact turns, but you can read the phase: trending (markup/markdown) favors continuation; ranging (accumulation/distribution) favors mean reversion or standing aside (range trading, momentum vs mean reversion). Dealer gamma often lines up — positive-gamma ranges match distribution/accumulation, negative-gamma amplifies markups/markdowns (positive vs negative gamma).