The gamma flip — the price where dealer hedging switches from dampening to amplifying — is a live estimate that shifts with positioning. On a Fed day, positioning does something specific, so the flip behaves in a recognizable pattern worth planning around.

Into 2pm: coiled and defensive

Ahead of the announcement, traders hedge and the tape often pins in a tight range — a positive-gamma, low-conviction drift as the market waits. Implied volatility is elevated and the flip tends to sit where it can, but the whole map is provisional: it's built on positioning that's about to be repriced. Trading the pre-2pm chop as if the levels are firm is the classic mistake.

After 2pm: the rehedge

Once the statement and press conference hit, the actual move repositions the entire options book — new strikes get bought, old hedges unwind — and the flip can jump to a new level. Cross it and the regime genuinely changes: a market that was dampened all afternoon can flip to amplifying in minutes. The 2:00–2:30 window is where the day's real structure is set, not the hour before it.

The pre-Fed map is a placeholder. The map that matters is the one that prints after the market has repriced the news.

How to trade it

Respect that pre-2pm levels are soft, and don't marry a flip computed on stale positioning. Many scalpers stand aside through the first violent minutes and trade the structure that forms once the dust settles — reading the fresh flip and walls rather than the ones the market just invalidated. A live-updated dealer map matters most on exactly these days, because the version from an hour ago is already wrong.