The expected move and one standard deviation are closely related — the expected move is essentially the market's one-standard-deviation range as priced by options. They're nearly the same idea, with a subtle distinction worth knowing.
The connection
In statistics, one standard deviation captures roughly the middle ~68% of outcomes — the range within which price is expected to stay about two-thirds of the time. The expected move, derived from option prices (often approximated by the at-the-money straddle), represents the market's estimate of how far price will move over a period — and that estimate corresponds to about a one-standard-deviation range. So when someone says “the expected move is $X,” they roughly mean “a one-standard-deviation move is $X,” and price is expected to stay within ±$X about 68% of the time.
The subtle distinction
They're not identical in every technical sense. “Standard deviation” is the pure statistical measure (from a distribution); the “expected move” is a practical, options-derived figure that approximates it, using conventions (like the straddle price) that make it slightly different from a textbook one-SD calculation. For trading purposes the difference is minor — both give you the same thing: a probabilistic range for the period. Just know the expected move is the market-priced version, reflecting current implied volatility, not a historical stat.
One standard deviation is the statistics; the expected move is that same range priced live by the options market. Same idea, two languages.
The quick takeaway
The expected move ≈ a one-standard-deviation range (~68% probability), priced from options — so yes, effectively the same, with the expected move being the practical, market-derived version. Both tell you the range price is likely to hold. NoVo maps the expected-move boundaries on your chart — the market's own priced-in range for the day.