NoVo Analyst · Pre-Market Primer

BOTTOM LINE: US equities open with a strong risk-on gap, driven by easing energy drag and overnight absorption, but session continuation hinges on whether buyers can hold premium above key structural support into a catalyst-heavy macro week. THE SETUP Futures staged a firm overnight recovery as crude pulled back sharply toward $84 a barrel following a pause in Middle East strikes, instantly easing Treasury yield headwinds and sparking a baseline bid. Macro data delivered a muted backdrop, with June U.S. Durable Goods Orders rising just +0.3% against expectations of a sharper rebound, leaving the market focused squarely on Wednesday's Fed decision, Q2 GDP, PCE, and mega-cap tech earnings. SPY gaps up +0.88% at $745.37, while QQQ opens at $693.59 and IWM reaches $294.49. Expect early two-sided volatility as participants digest the pre-market gap before deciding whether to expand the range or lock in gains ahead of mid-week catalysts. DEALER POSITIONING The structural posture across all three index ETFs is supportive of a calmer, mean-reverting tape, with dealers sitting net-long gamma on SPY to act as a dampener against violent downside liquidation. This positive dealer posture creates a buffer where market makers buy dips and sell rallies, dampening intraday range expansion. However, structural divergence remains clear: tech-heavy QQQ sits closer to key overhead call resistance, keeping its upside upside-capped, whereas small-cap IWM shows broader participation as lower energy costs relieve margin pressure on domestic cyclicals. Across the options book, overall positioning reflects a moderate call bias, though traders maintain tactical downside put coverage to hedge against catalyst risk later in the week. LEVELS TO WATCH For SPY, buyers hold immediate control as long as price stays above pre-market low support at $744.62 and yesterday's high of $743.72. Holding this zone keeps the path open toward pre-market high resistance at $746.53, with extended upside targeting the overhead $750.00 call wall. The bullish read breaks down if price drops below $743.72 and breaks $742.80 gravity, which would signal a gap-fill liquidation back toward pre-market support at $739.17 and $737.70. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / IWM Vol environment: VIX 17.7 — 59th percentile of the past year (normal vol). SPY $745.42 Net GEX: +$1.3B · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $738.48 Gravity (magnet): $742.80 Call Wall: $750.00 Put Wall: $720.00 Expected move: ±$14.83 (±2.0%) today · ±$33.16 (±4.5%) this week Put/Call skew: +7.3 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +7.3 / next +5.1 vol pts · 0DTE fear building vs the next expiry ATM IV: 31.6% QQQ $693.48 Net GEX: -$689M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $696.33 Gravity (magnet): $680.01 Call Wall: $694.00 Put Wall: $680.00 Expected move: ±$7.27 (±1.1%) today · ±$27.73 (±4.0%) this week Put/Call skew: +4.3 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +4.3 / next +5.1 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 16.6% IWM $294.49 Net GEX: -$1.2B · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $297.62 Gravity (magnet): $286.91 Call Wall: $295.00 Put Wall: $285.00 Expected move: ±$2.28 (±0.8%) today · ±$7.35 (±2.5%) this week Put/Call skew: +3.2 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +3.2 / next +4.2 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 12.3% Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — as today's options decay, dealer delta drifts toward the walls: a mild pull into the close (the pin). Vanna — a further rise in vol would erode the dealers' long-gamma cushion and add hedging pressure. Second-order dealer flow context.