NoVo Analyst · Pre-Market Primer

BOTTOM LINE: The pre-market is exhibiting a constructive, risk-on gap above the prior close, but the broader intraday trend remains structurally capped and subject to high volatility below key dealer thresholds. THE SETUP Global equities are finding a temporary foothold as technology shares attempt a recovery from their recent AI-driven contraction. Geopolitical tensions remain highly active, but a proposed 10-day ceasefire in the Middle East has provided a brief reprieve, cooling the VIX ahead of the cash open. Today's macro agenda features secondary U.S. housing and regional manufacturing data, though corporate earnings—including prints from major financial and industrial players—will dictate micro-level sector flows. DEALER POSITIONING The market remains in a net negative gamma regime of -$1.5B, meaning market makers are structurally positioned to chase direction, selling into weakness and buying into strength, which amplifies intraday swings. The pivot point for this behavior is the Gamma Flip level at $747.68; trading below this line historically correlates with wider, more volatile ranges. In the broader options book, the public delta-equivalent posture leans net-short, while the persistent bid in puts relative to calls maintains a defensive skew as downside hedging remains active. LEVELS TO WATCH For the pre-market gap to convert into a sustained intraday recovery, buyers must reclaim and construct a base above the Gamma Flip level at $747.68, which would open a path toward the call wall at $748.00 and yesterday's high of $748.73. Conversely, if sellers reject the pre-market high of $746.68 and push price back below the pre-market low of $744.27, it confirms a structural failure of the gap. This scenario shifts control back to the bears, exposing a path down to the put wall at $740.00 and the deeper structural gravity magnet at $739.83. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / SPX Vol environment: VIX 17.8 — 60th percentile of the past year (normal vol). SPY $745.13 Net GEX: -$1.5B · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $747.68 Gravity (magnet): $739.83 Call Wall: $748.00 Put Wall: $740.00 Expected move: ±$6.80 (±0.9%) today · ±$18.69 (±2.5%) this week Put/Call skew: +3.5 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +3.5 / next +4.0 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 14.5% QQQ $705.12 Net GEX: -$683M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $712.99 Gravity (magnet): $692.01 Call Wall: $707.00 Put Wall: $695.00 Expected move: ±$10.63 (±1.5%) today · ±$28.34 (±4.0%) this week Put/Call skew: +6.0 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +6.0 / next +6.3 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 23.9% SPX $7,443.47 Net GEX: -$8.1B · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $7,468.72 Gravity (magnet): $7,425.66 Call Wall: $7,500.00 Put Wall: $7,400.00 Expected move: ±$72.12 (±1.0%) today · ±$186.73 (±2.5%) this week Put/Call skew: +3.2 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +3.2 / next +3.6 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 15.4% Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data — analysis, not signals. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — in a negative-gamma regime, decay doesn't pin; moves can extend into the close. Vanna — with dealers short gamma, a drop in vol would ease the amplification and let the tape settle. Second-order dealer flow — context, not a signal.