2026-07-16 · NoVo Analyst
NoVo Analyst · Closing Bell Synopsis
Structural Bias · BEARISH
BOTTOM LINE: The SPY closed with a tactical bearish bias, down 0.67% on the day, as tech-sector weakness and rising yields overshadowed positive economic data,
DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / SPX
Vol environment: VIX 16.6 — 43th percentile of the past year (normal vol).
SPY $749.77
Net GEX: -$760M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend)
Zero-Gamma (flip): $750.41
Gravity (magnet): $749.26
Call Wall: $760.00 Put Wall: $740.00
Expected move: ±$7.28 (±1.0%) today · ±$17.57 (±2.3%) this week
Put/Call skew: +2.6 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand
MM skew · fast +2.6 / slow +2.3 vol pts · near-term fear building vs the baseline
ATM IV: 15.4%
QQQ $704.83
Net GEX: -$3.3B · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend)
Zero-Gamma (flip): $715.53
Gravity (magnet): $699.54
Call Wall: $725.00 Put Wall: $700.00
Expected move: ±$12.55 (±1.8%) today · ±$28.05 (±4.0%) this week
Put/Call skew: +7.6 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand
MM skew · fast +7.6 / slow +5.6 vol pts · near-term fear building vs the baseline
ATM IV: 28.3%
SPX $7,514.76
Net GEX: -$4.9B · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend)
Zero-Gamma (flip): $7,523.61
Gravity (magnet): $7,524.11
Call Wall: $7,550.00 Put Wall: $7,505.00
Expected move: ±$159.40 (±2.1%) today · ±$356.43 (±4.7%) this week
Put/Call skew: -30.1 vol pts · calls bid — upside chase / complacency
MM skew · fast -30.1 / slow +2.3 vol pts · near-term complacency vs the baseline
ATM IV: 33.7%
Zero-Gamma = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data — analysis, not signals.
FLOW DYNAMICS
Charm — in a negative-gamma regime, decay doesn't pin; moves can extend into the close. Vanna — with dealers short gamma, a drop in vol would ease the amplification and let the tape settle. Second-order dealer flow — context, not a signal.
Key Levels
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